Week 4 - Up, Down, and Up

At the end of week 4, my portfolio is up by 2.08% (compared to the end of last year). I can't say it is due to my smart trading strategy though, as I have not done anything, other than some trimming (forced in some occations). I have not added any new positions. My holdings of a number of small and micro stocks performed very well for the first month of the year and partially offset the up and down of large caps. I remain cautious and do not see a lot of opportunities here.

Week 2 and 3 All Quiet in West Front

It is becoming extremely difficult to blog, and I have been extremely busy, rather unfortunately. I would rather follow the market and do what I love to do, but could not manage the cash flow. Back to work it is.

Back to trading / investing, at the end of week 3, I am up by about 1.08%, about the same with index, however, I am currently at about 30%-40% cash. A couple of my positions got stopped out, including a decent size position of CSCO. Another one, WFR got called away on my Jan. 40 covering call. I have not add any new positions. I found lack of leadership in the current market concerning, even the large-cap tech shares start losing steam. Commodities are also rather weak and volatile. I do not see a lot of opportunities, even for a trade. I am willing to sit this one out, be patient, and let the market come to me. I continue to hold the view that the market is over-bought and there are better entry points in the near future. I am watching for tech, energy, precious metals, for potential setups.

WEEK 1 FLAT

One of my uranium stocks, CXX.V got stopped out this morning, one of the worst type as it stopped me out and turned around and went up by 7%. While I was not too pleased, there's a reason that the stop loss limit is there. Pack up and move on. I still stare at this commodity melt down and wondering if I should add some, particularly in uranium and precious metal names. I am truly tempted. Uranium stocks have tried several times to reverse, and they have fallen much less that base metal and precious metal names.

What a waste of time this week. My portfolio went up by about 0.8% during the middle of the week, and almost perfectly squared at the end. On the other hand, it could be worse, considering both DOW and S&P closed with a negative record for the week and NASDAQ with a small gain. But TSE fell by more than 4% in five trading days. Considering about half of my portfolio still with TSE stocks, the flat performance is pretty good. I have zero energy, only one position in metals, and one name in uranium, which got stopped today.

Position: CXX.V, none.

COMMODITY MELT DOWN

Commodities are having a couple of real tough days, down about 10% for energy, base metals, precious metals stocks. Uranium stocks made an effort to recover this afternoon, but failed at closing. I kind of expect this consolidation in the near term and have raised some cash lately, but the strength at NASDAQ surprised me. I am considering to add some exposure of precious metals, and maybe a couple of uranium names. However, I feel the melt down is not complete yet, and there might be another leg down for most of the commodity stocks. Patience is not one of my strong suite and I have to try very hard.

2006 RESULTS

Unfortunately, I have very little time to spare on this blog, despite the fact that I really enjoy it and it does help me as an investor. I will try my best to update, although it will be very infrequently. Here is my 2006 results.

I achieved 12.85% for the year 2006, slightly outperformed S&P500 and NASDAQ, but under-performed DOW. The result is also slightly better than last year's 12.4%. Despite the decent results, I was not particularly happy because I simply made too much mistakes during the mid part of the year, as shown in the chart. My performance would be (and should be) much better had I managed to avoid a third of the mistakes.

For the new year, therefore, my resolution is to reduce the number of mistakes, as well as the magnitude of their damages. Given the time constrains in this year, I suspect my trading activities will be reduced significantly, which could help as well. WORK HARDER, TRADE LESS. Sounds like a good formula.