SELL INTO BOUNCE

I added some AKAM here at $30.95 with a stop-loss at $30.50. While I am still concerned, I felt comfortable at short term due to yesterday's sell off. The initiative on the Iran front appears to be positive and oil has plunged. This should be slightly positive to the overall market. Volume is on the average side, though. I would like to square off by the end of the day as I really do not intend to carry too much inventory. Stopped out.

Sold half of my position of VRS.TO at $1.45. I would buy some more back if it falls back to $1.2 level. Sold the balance at $1.5. I believe I can get this one back at lower level.

REFUSE TO PANIC

PROCRASTINATION USUALLY LEADS TO LOSSES

Cardiome Pharma (CRME) gets a "refusal to file" from FDA. I guess that explains its recent weakness. There might be potentially panic sell off this morning, which could be a buying opportunity. The question is whether to sell my current position first and looking to buy them back later. My thinking is that if the gap down is not significant, I would intend to sell my position and to see how it develops. If the gap is significant, I may hold my nose and stay put. Management remains confident and indicates that it will refile sooner rather than later. Looks like it gaps down quite a bit. I guess I have to hold it for now.

A FEW GOOD LESSONS

A few good lessons from Barry Ratholtz.

One of those days that couldn't finish early enough. I was tempted to add some here as the sell-off accelerated. However, remember what Barry said above, "oversold can become more more oversold". The market is severely damaged, and better to wait.

WAIT AND SEE

"ONE DAY YOU EAT THE BEAR, THE NEXT THE BEAR EATS YOU" - DAVID FRY

Futures are deep in red and market appears to be bumpy to start this hot and hazy week. Commodities continue to be in the positive swing, particularly energy. There might be a trade in selective energy and commodity names and a couple of shorts in the technology. However, it is never a good idea to jump in at the beginning of the week. Better to wait and see.

Nickel price dropped significantly due to Inco's agreement with its union. Galleon (GO-A.TO) cut its production guidance and the market does not like it. This is a high flyer in the junior sector and it could get ugly, which could provide a buying opportunity. ProEx (PXE.TO) on the other hand, increases its production guidance and it could pop a bit this morning.

MY VERY FIRST LINK

This is my first try to creat a link and this is such a good post that I could not pass it on. The golden rules of investing. Easy said, hard to do.

DEAD MONEY

"PASSION, PERSISTENCE, AND PATIENCE"


Future market is very strong and the market is poised to open higher and tech is on the lead, which is not surprising given the severe oversold condition. I am looking to trim some on strengths and may add a couple of my favorites for a really short trade.



ATA fell by more than 25% in the early morning, after a so-so earning report. I do not believe it was warranted and added some at $12.20. I still believe there's a lot of value of its solar business spin-off and it still could get to $20 later this year. I am having a second thought, while listening to the management during the conference call. The management appears to be inept, lack of confidence, and clueless. Maybe I should cut loss and run. I sold the shares bought in the morning for a small gain. Unfortunately, I have to go out for some personal business and the stock continued to fall. This is terrible. I would have had a really good day if not for this dog. I am a bit depressed and frustrated. The stock has been decline for the past few days and I should have been alarmed and trimmed some in front of its earning report in order to avoid the disaster like this one.

Despite my emotions, I have to look forward, not backward and it appears to me that this will likely be dead money for a while. The spin-off will not be materialized until later this year, and even then its valuation becomes questionable after today's report. Therefore, objectively, I believe I should sell this dog, preserve whatever capital remains and fight for another day.

SHORT TERM TRADE

"INVESTMENT IS ABOUT FUTURE, NOT THE PAST"

I will be out most of the day, and therefore, I will stay put with no trading. The market remains unclear to me, although metals appear to be under pressure in the early morning trade. While the market is up, internal is not terribly strong, and the pace appears rather slow. I do not trust this bounce and I am not ready to commit any capital.

More stop-losses triggered. OCX was stopped out this morning. What an ugly looking chart!

I went out and back the market fell hard. There's a lot of selling going on there, particularly the recent high flyers. I know it takes a lot of courage to buy here and it could potentially go down further, but I have to hold my nose and buy some. I added some WFR, which was down about another 10% today. There might be some more selling in the next couple of days, in front of the long weekend. My strategy is the same. This is a short term trade. I believe it will bounce a bit from here and I am prepared to sell. Otherwise, I will put a pretty tight stop-loss on it and to see where the overall market. The chart looks awful, but there's no good looking chart out there.

I also added some AKAM at $28.75. I am probably early, but this is the best tech name out there, and I am willing to hold it through. Or, Maybe not. Sold it at $29.64.

THE BOUNCE

We got the bounce this morning and the question is: how long? Could it continue tomorrow or the rest of this week? It appears to run out of steam here, dead-cat bounce? Sold my position of WFR at $36.40. Given the fade off here, I have to content with the 7% return, for one day! even though I would have like to hold it a bit longer. What a disappointing day!

BUY ON PANIC

Again, AKAM stop is triggered this morning at $33.0. The market remains very weak, although pace appears rather slow, and volume is low. There appears a buyers-strike out there. I am going to stay put for now and may add AKAM back later.

Bought AKAM back here. It will need to hold its support at $31.90, or it will fall further. I will stop it at the support level and wait and see. While bottom-fishing should usually be avoided, AKAM probably is one of the best tech name there and I do not mind buying quality at discount. (It broke its support just as I was typing. Let's see where it will close). Stopped out.

Added some WFR here at $33.80. I am totally impressed with this sell-off and discipline dictates that I got to buy some here to take advantage of potential bounce. This is a rather precarious position though as it has no visible support until $27. Valuation, on the other hand, is rather attractive, as the stock is way over-sold. The fact is if the market bounces, it will go along, however, you must be prepared to take profit, regardless how small it is. Also, better to turn a tight stop loss on.

We got the bounce right now. Is this the bounce everyone is looking for? Does it have legs? Could it go higher from here? Could it follow through? Is it a dead-cat bounce?

WEEKLY REVIEW

I haven't been very diligent in posting for a week for variety of reasons, and I do want to just to summarize what I have done in a very difficult week. Again, a few stops triggered, including WFR, (rather reluctantly, but a good one). I also sold the remaining position of ADS at a decent price (a partial sale of this one at its excellent earning report was a good strategy as it has fallen ever since).

On the buying side, I added some AKAM at $31.5, one that is on my buying-list. I would have liked to buy under 30, but willing to pay the little extra. It turns out alright by the end of the week and I have a rather tight stop-loss in place. I also added some BTUI at $16.5 on Friday. While it is on my buy-list, this one has been all over the place and it is very had to judge its direction. But I am rather comfortable at this level, and again I will add a tight stop-loss tomorrow.

I also dumped all my position in HRAY after its disastrous earnings. I should have been more vigilant on this one and at least trimmed some before the earning report. A terrible mistake, and costly one too.

I am still not too sure about the market direction next week. I suspect that the commodities will continue to correct while tech may bounce a bit. Longer term is less clear. I would like to trim some of my tech positions if the market bounces. If it continues to fall, I probably would like to add a few more selective names.

STOPS TRIGGERED

Quite a few stop-losses are triggered earlier today (HOM, HBM, AUR, LMIA). Oh, well, that's why they are in place. The market continues to fall, and the recent adds are not performing well at all, which makes me to hesitate to add more today.

Added some ALDA here. The stock has been volatile lately, after the great quarterly report. At this level, it is simply too cheap to ignore. The only concern is the market condition, which I am not too sure that it has reached bottom.

TIGHTENING STOP-LOSSES

Trimmed some HBM on this run up and put a tight stop-loss on the balance. I have been in and out of this name rather frequently. I know, I know, this is not the best way to invest, however, I am very nervous of the copper and base metal market overall, as it has gone so much. HBM announced a blockbuster earning report, and it did not budge at all. Not a good sign. I do not want to lose any of my precious capital, so I take some off the table. I am also starting to tight up stop-losses on other names. I want to force myself to protect my profits in the event of continuing decline.

BUYING SOME PANIC

Added some HBM here at this sell-off. Base metals remain very strong and there's no reason for this dip other than some profit-taking (there's nothing wrong with it, I had done some myself). But I believe this will go up again to 16.5 level next week. Having said that, copper is almost too hot and I have to be really careful.

Major sell-off today, particularly in the tech area. I am looking to put together a list of names that I would like to add on: QCOM, ATHR, CKCM, BTUI, AKAM, WIRE.

Buying some QCOM, and XTRX at the end of trading day here. A bit of panic in the air. But this down turn could have legs and I would like to close the position on a bounce in the next few days.

BIG FED DAY

Added some LEH here in front of the Fed. This is the "One more and pause" play for tomorrow and next few days. Moreover, LEH is performing well, valuation remains reasonable and I have limited exposure in financials.

CUT AND RUN

Hum, UIC appears to miss the earning estimate this morning, and despite strong long term outlook, the near term outlook is not very exciting. Good thing that I trimmed some earlier and I will close my position this morning, just to stay at sideline. There are a lot of profits on the table for this one and it could get ugly. Man it's UGLY! Down almost $12. The stock is priced at perfection and there are so much profits in it that investors will run. UIC will likely be in the penalty box for a while.

XMC also warned and it got whacked pretty hard. It's too late for me to sell here. I certainly have no intention to join the panic crowd. However, I do intend to pare some in the next few weeks if it recovers a bit. The stock remains significantly undervalued, and I believe the chance is good that it may recover somewhat. (Sold my entire position for a loss).

I also trimmed some HBM this morning on this run. I still like this stock. However, I have no idea where the copper/zinc will be in the near future. It has gone up by more than 20% in the few days, and I must to take some off the table. Discipline trumps conviction.

Continuing trimming. Sold CKCM this afternoon at this run here, in front of its earning report tomorrow morning. I do not have sufficient confidence on its earnings to hold it through. More importantly, it could sell off even for a good earning report. I had only very small profit on this one, however, it's still better than loss. I'll take it.

TIME TO ADD FINANCIALS?

Time to add some financial again. I am considering to add some financial next week to see if they stick, JPM and LEH are preferred name for now. These are simple trades, and they are almost too simplistic for investments, but it could work. I call these "One and Pause" trades. Despite the recent run ups, JPM remains one of the cheapest large banks in the USA. Brokers, well, they are all cheap. Although GS probably is a bit better than LEH, it is rather expensive in dollar sense. I would have to use deep in the money options to play GS. LEH probably is a more appropriate play.

FINALLY AN UP DAY!

BTUI

Trimmed some BTUI here at $21.5 for about 10.5%, not too bad considering I added it only last week. Rather impressive if annulized. While I still like it very much, I found this one tends to go up on a very small volume and fall back. I may add it back if it falls under $20 again. I am also considering to trim some CKCM in front of its earnings next week. My confidence on its earnings is not very high, moreover, there have been a lot of "selling good earnings" in this quarter. Having said that, I would like to see it go up a bit higher before pulling the trigger.

Finally, HGRD announced a terrific earning report this morning and the stock popped up for more than 20%. I was right to hold when it went down all the way to $3.25. I remain positive on this name and I continue to hold it to see if it can test its next resistance in the next few weeks. $4.5 is now a solid support level and exit when this level is breached.

MIGHTY LOONY

April turned out to be a terrible month for me and I was down almost 4% compared to previous month. However, the C$ has appreciated for approximately 5.2%. Without the mighty C$, my performance would have been up slightly. I have always believed that the currency fluctuation will eventually be even out and I will not pay too much attention to it.

Biotech continues to get hit today and the sector, along with other healthcare sector, has been dogs for this year. I am watching this sector and would like to add some. But the mighty loony concerns me, and the momentum does not seem to fade. Maybe I should simply add some COM from here as a proxy for biotech.

OCX

Enough talk already, time to do some trading. I add some OCX today, another purchase before earnings, except this one is at the home front in the mighty loonies. I believe OCX is going to have a great quarter, and chart looks strong as well.