Wednesday, April 05, 2006

PEAK?


First, EICU came out with a bang! up by almost 50%. Needless to say that I was unable to get my hand on it even though I have a well-thought plan to do so.

I feel really uneasy about this market. First of all, it has gone up a lot, although rather reluctantly. Secondly, I sensed a lot of optimism out there, even some performance anxiety. Third, I screen a lot of stocks daily and while there is no shortage of good stocks, valuation is rather stretched. Fourth, I am also have a hard time to figure out which sector is currently out of favor, other than the obvious large pharms. Put these factors all together, you have a near term correction in place. However, when and how much is another question. The pre-announcements have not been wide-spread, and Q1 earnings are expected to be robust. This may be the set up for a near term peak. If my scenario pans out, I have to start to take some profits (LMS, UIC, WFR), and dump some losers while I have an chance.

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