RESOLUTION
VPHM
The focus of this week will have to be VPHM, and what ever happens, I must prevent it from becoming another Conjuncan. My strategy is if it continues to fall, I will cut loss and run. If it bounces, I will set up a tight stop loss. In either events, I am prepared to exit this position in entirety so that at least a part of the capital is preserved to fight for another day. While I acknowledge that the risk remains high, I feel strongly that this will not turn out another Conjuncan because: it has a profitable and growing product, generate significant cash flow, at least for the next couple of years; it has a clean balance sheet with more than $250 million cash and free cash flow positive. While it has one product, it does have a pipeline. Having said that, who knows what the market will do, it could potentially go down for another five points from here. In any event, the decision is made and it is only a matter of execution!
Overall market may also top a bit here, and if it continues to show strength, I would like to take some profits. One area that is not moving with the overall market is the trust sector. Given my relatively over-weighting, I believe this may be the time to scale a bit in the next couple of weeks.
Otherwise, I feel reasonably comfortable with the portfolio. I believe I have only one position which may face some uncertainty (CNTF reports on Monday). There shouldn't be any surprises in the coming weeks until the Q1/06 reporting season. If the market and the portfolio stabilize in the next couple of weeks, it may provide me some breathing room to deal with other more pressing matters. I got to be POSITIVE, CONFIDENT, and PERSEVERANCE.
The focus of this week will have to be VPHM, and what ever happens, I must prevent it from becoming another Conjuncan. My strategy is if it continues to fall, I will cut loss and run. If it bounces, I will set up a tight stop loss. In either events, I am prepared to exit this position in entirety so that at least a part of the capital is preserved to fight for another day. While I acknowledge that the risk remains high, I feel strongly that this will not turn out another Conjuncan because: it has a profitable and growing product, generate significant cash flow, at least for the next couple of years; it has a clean balance sheet with more than $250 million cash and free cash flow positive. While it has one product, it does have a pipeline. Having said that, who knows what the market will do, it could potentially go down for another five points from here. In any event, the decision is made and it is only a matter of execution!
Overall market may also top a bit here, and if it continues to show strength, I would like to take some profits. One area that is not moving with the overall market is the trust sector. Given my relatively over-weighting, I believe this may be the time to scale a bit in the next couple of weeks.
Otherwise, I feel reasonably comfortable with the portfolio. I believe I have only one position which may face some uncertainty (CNTF reports on Monday). There shouldn't be any surprises in the coming weeks until the Q1/06 reporting season. If the market and the portfolio stabilize in the next couple of weeks, it may provide me some breathing room to deal with other more pressing matters. I got to be POSITIVE, CONFIDENT, and PERSEVERANCE.
posted by ZIGZAG at 3/19/2006 08:47:00 PM
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