Tuesday, August 08, 2006

PAUSE?


Whatever happens in the pre-market or at the opening probably are wrong moves. The market is unlikely to do anything until 2:15 pm, and even then, the early reaction would likely be reversed. The consensus of "PAUSE" is also concerned me a bit which is probably built into the price already. Given that, it is more likely that the market will sell the "PAUSE", instead of rallying, particularly if it rallies in front of the announcement. Furthermore, "data dependent" will likely retained in the statement, and therefore, more uncertainty about potential future hike, and "waiting for the Fed" game starts all over again. All in all, meaningful and sustained rally is simply unlikely to occur in the near term. How depressing!

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