JUGGLING

ADS

I put an order of ADS this morning and got filled at 35.50. The Q3/05 results were great, exceeding management and the street by a rather decent margin. Very strong growth in both top- and bottom-lines. Both 05 and 06 numbers are lifted, by management and sell-side analysts. The company bought 1.2 million shares of its stocks. But the stock got an almost 10% haircut. Why? It’s likely that investors (myself included) are still frustrated by the failure of “Air Miles� trust conversion. Blame Paul Martin! But isn’t it already discounted (by a sharp decline from $45 to below 40)? I am very reluctant to add fresh new positions from here as my longer term outlook for the market is not very positive. However, I thought this is an opportunity too great to pass. At 35, it is traded at 14.8X of next years EPS, a significant discount to the average, particularly in view of its long term growth (20%) and its stellar records. Moreover, in short term, the market is severely oversold. The downside risk for both the stock and the overall market is limited. The upside? It could easily recover to today’s opening, i.e. $40.

CCL

Sold remaining CLL to raise additional cash. I continue to hold the view that there could be a short term rally from here. I will continue to raise cash if it materializes.

XMC

Sold 700 shares of XMC this afternoon to raise additional cash. Also the stock continues to show weakness since last quarter report. Interest rate is raising, real estate market appears to cool down, default may increase and there is large inside selling. Next quarter will likely be weak as well due to seasonality. Not to mention the overall market is really weak. Cash in most of profit, still holding a rather small position.

JNPR

I could not believe I have done so many trades today. I add a very small position of JNPR in this final hour as the market starts to melt down, ON MARGIN NO LESS. I was not particularly enamored by JNPR, but I do want to test my temperament. When the market melts down like this one, I want to add some exposure. Like ADS, JNPR had a great quarter, exceeding expectation, raising outlook, but stock did nothing today due to this weak market. This presents a short term trade opportunity. “TRADE� is the word to remember. JNPR is not a cheap stock, it is traded at 30X of 05 and about 25X of 06, a rather lofty valuation level in view of its relatively slow growth potential. I intend to peel it away or stop it at 23.50 level when the market rebounds. I believe the downside risk is rather small. Upside? How about go back to its opening today, $23.98. I could be wrong and I have been wrong many times indeed.