GAMBLE?
CWH
My average-down of CWH did not appear to work out as CWH continues to fall, breaking all supports. While I could not detect any fundamental changes, I should have paid more attention to the technical, which is clearly broken. I hate the situation like this. Should I cut loss and run or should I hang around? One theory is that if the fundamentals are not changing, why sell? In this case, I can’t see any fundamental changes, earnings are good, balance sheet clean, growth is strong, and the sector is in favor. The other theory is to sell on a pre-determined stop loss, in this case, is breached. One fundamental, one discipline. They appears to be contradictory all the time. Which rule should follow? One rule I believe has been clearly established: if earnings have deteriorated, SELL!
Does this free fall indicate a poor second quarter (April/05) coming, or is it just orderly profit taking? I believe the company will likely deliver solid earnings as most of its revenues are recurring. If it does, the stock should move up again. I will wait until the earning report, which should not be too far away.
STX
I re-established a small position of STX ($21.40) today. There are a couple of factors playing in its favor. One KOMO increased its Q2/05 guidance this morning, which leads me to believe that STX will have a good chance to beat its Q2/05 guidance. There are also a couple of upgrade this morning, and 05 ESP is upped slightly ($1.35). The stock consolidated a bit in the past few sessions and is ready to move up. Initial target $25, stop at $19.90.
My average-down of CWH did not appear to work out as CWH continues to fall, breaking all supports. While I could not detect any fundamental changes, I should have paid more attention to the technical, which is clearly broken. I hate the situation like this. Should I cut loss and run or should I hang around? One theory is that if the fundamentals are not changing, why sell? In this case, I can’t see any fundamental changes, earnings are good, balance sheet clean, growth is strong, and the sector is in favor. The other theory is to sell on a pre-determined stop loss, in this case, is breached. One fundamental, one discipline. They appears to be contradictory all the time. Which rule should follow? One rule I believe has been clearly established: if earnings have deteriorated, SELL!
Does this free fall indicate a poor second quarter (April/05) coming, or is it just orderly profit taking? I believe the company will likely deliver solid earnings as most of its revenues are recurring. If it does, the stock should move up again. I will wait until the earning report, which should not be too far away.
STX
I re-established a small position of STX ($21.40) today. There are a couple of factors playing in its favor. One KOMO increased its Q2/05 guidance this morning, which leads me to believe that STX will have a good chance to beat its Q2/05 guidance. There are also a couple of upgrade this morning, and 05 ESP is upped slightly ($1.35). The stock consolidated a bit in the past few sessions and is ready to move up. Initial target $25, stop at $19.90.
posted by ZIGZAG at 6/07/2005 09:21:00 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home