Thursday, November 18, 2004

UNCOMMON COMMODITY


ADD NCX @53
Added a little NCX here. I probably a bid of late to the party, as a result, I have to pay $5.0 more for the rid. The earning momentum appears strong and we should see a few more very good quarters, which should carry this one to $60 level. I want to add more commodity plays other than energy, but I simply could not summon up enough courage to add any base metal names here, after missing the correction earlier this month. I think this might be a safer play.


DISCIPLINE
ATY could hit my initial target of $25 by tomorrow. Now the original plan is to increase beta by adding ATY in anticipating the "BUSH-Rally" which did materialize. It was planned to reduce exposure upon the $25 mark. Should I (1) sell half; (2) stop loss at $25; or (3) do nothing? While fundamentally, you should not sell stocks when fundamentals remain good, (or technically when trend is not broken), here is a perfect example of DISCIPLINE. I have to implement my original plan because (1) at this level, it will be over 10% of the total portfolio; (2) you can still take the ride with the remaining position; (3) a 20% gain in less than a month is nothing to laugh about; (4) the market has gone up by more than 10% after election, this might be qualified as "too much and too fast"; Time to trim before the correction; and (5) I always have difficulties to sell on the way up and I am determined to do so this time. Remember the cliche, IT NEVER WRONG TO TAKE SOME OFF THE TABLE. The amateur mentality: too greedy to sell on the way up and too scared to buy on the way down.


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